Phase 2 LIVE — paper, Core-only (VTI). This dashboard can only stop trading.
Each dot is a snapshot the engine POSTed. Weekends legitimately absent (markets closed). Weekday gaps = engine downtime or POST failures during that window — data is missing, not "$0".
Currently running alpha:projection_v2 at conf ≥ 0.40
(0.65 → 0.50 → 0.40 over 2026-08-04, each drop forced by calibration data).
Kelly-lite sizing: 0.04 × conf² × NAV, capped at 3% NAV.
Known limitation: confidence is currently a
popularity metric — it counts how many feeds mention a ticker in the same
direction, with no grounding in forward returns. High confidence therefore
selects crowded trades where news is already priced in. The 0.4–0.5 band
is the only one with positive historical returns, which is why the floor
sits at 0.40. Real fix (empirical per-source calibrator) is queued.
alpha:confluence_v1 was killed 2026-07-08 (#95).
| Ticker | Dir | Created | Matures | Status | Was correct | Signed return | Rationale |
|---|
Rolls up every evaluated prediction. By source answers "which channels actually predict returns?" — Distinct variant dedupes re-fires by (ticker, source_key). By confidence bucket answers "does higher confidence = better outcome?" (spoiler: currently no).
| source_key | N | Hit % | Avg signed | Cum signed | First → Last |
|---|
This is the number to trust for kill/keep decisions. Re-fires (same ticker, multiple predictions) collapse to one row here.
| source_key | N distinct | Hit % | Avg signed | Cum signed |
|---|
Higher bar in green if it produces better returns; RED if higher confidence is producing worse outcomes (indicates the confidence signal is broken).
| Confidence bucket | N | Hit % | Avg signed return |
|---|
Alerts at the top. Action when you see ⭐ ALERT — the price has crossed your trigger in the thesis direction. Engine never trades these automatically.
| Ticker | Direction | Price | % since added | % to trigger | Thesis |
|---|
Same risk gate as automated trades. Engine picks up on the next cycle, places, and updates status below.
| Time | Ticker | Side | Qty | Sleeve | Limit | Status | By | Notes |
|---|
| Symbol | Sleeve | Qty | Avg cost | Mkt |
|---|
| Time | Sleeve | Symbol | Side | Qty | Price | Status |
|---|