| Period | Fund | SPY | Excess | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Sleeve | Value | Return | Actual | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Phase 2 — paper (test money, no real capital). All figures below are simulated.
Phase 2 LIVE — paper. This dashboard can only stop trading.
Each dot is a snapshot the engine POSTed. Weekends legitimately absent (markets closed). Weekday gaps = engine downtime or POST failures during that window — data is missing, not "$0".
The alpha sleeve has been parked at 0% since 2026-09-04: ten pre-registered signal tests found nothing that beats SPY by 5 points after costs. Below is the lane's record as it stands; its last two holdings are winding down.
| Ticker | Dir | Created | Matures | Status | Was correct | Signed return | Rationale |
|---|
Rolls up every evaluated prediction. By source answers "which channels actually predict returns?" — Distinct variant dedupes re-fires by (ticker, source_key). By confidence bucket answers "does higher confidence = better outcome?"
| source_key | N | Hit % | Avg signed | Cum signed | First → Last |
|---|
This is the number to trust for kill/keep decisions. Re-fires (same ticker, multiple predictions) collapse to one row here.
| source_key | N distinct | Hit % | Avg signed | Cum signed |
|---|
Higher bar in green if it produces better returns; RED if higher confidence is producing worse outcomes (indicates the confidence signal is broken).
| Confidence bucket | N | Hit % | Avg signed return |
|---|
Alerts at the top. ⭐ ALERT means the price crossed the thesis trigger, moved more than 5% or 2σ in a day, or (for a live holding) sits 8% or more below its 20-day high — that last kind also reaches Front. Engine never trades these automatically.
| Ticker | Direction | Price | % since added | % to trigger | Thesis |
|---|
Same risk gate as automated trades. Engine picks up on the next cycle, places, and updates status below.
| Time | Ticker | Side | Qty | Sleeve | Limit | Status | By | Notes |
|---|
| Symbol | Sleeve | Qty | Avg cost | Mkt |
|---|
| Time | Sleeve | Symbol | Side | Qty | Price | Status |
|---|